The Cypriot government has officially approved the development and production plan for the Aphrodite natural gas field, located in Block 12 of the country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The project is operated by Chevron Cyprus Limited in collaboration with Shell and NewMed Energy and is seen as a major milestone in Cyprus' ambition to become a key energy player in the region.

 The next phase involves the construction of a Floating Production Unit (FPU) within Cyprus' EEZ, along with a gas pipeline that will connect the field to Egypt’s energy infrastructure. This move is expected to enhance resource accessibility and support stable energy supply for regional economies. Cypriot Energy Minister Giorgos Papanastasiou emphasized that this project represents a significant step in the country's vision of becoming a regional energy hub.

Aphrodite is partially owned by Delek Group and NewMed Energy, which jointly submitted a development plan for government approval several months ago. That plan has now been approved, with a maximum production capacity estimated at approximately 800 MMCF per day.

Could Aphrodite Unlock Significant Value for NewMed?

The Aphrodite field is expected to reach impressive production levels, with forecasts suggesting daily output at 70-75% of that of the Tamar field. Despite being relatively smaller in size—holding an estimated 3.6 TCF of gas, roughly one-third the size of Tamar—its valuation will be driven not just by volume but by production rate.

Although the current pricing of Aphrodite does not yet reflect its full potential, this could change significantly as development progresses. Tamar, which has been operational for about a decade, is currently valued at around $8 billion. Based on similar calculations, Aphrodite could be worth between $3-4 billion, representing significant upside potential for NewMed, which holds a 30% stake in the field.

Comparing Aphrodite to the Karish and Tanin Fields

Relative to Energean’s Karish and Tanin fields, Aphrodite is approximately twice the size. Additionally, its expected daily production will be about 50% higher than that of Karish and Tanin. Today, the valuation of Karish and Tanin, based on Energean's share price, stands at approximately $2.5 billion. Given these metrics, Aphrodite's value could reach at least $3-4 billion—or even higher if the development process goes according to plan.

NewMed and its partners, Chevron (35%) and Shell (35%), are aiming for a higher valuation for Aphrodite. However, significant investment and risks must be factored in. The partners have already invested around half a billion dollars and expect to inject another $4 billion to bring the field into full production. The process may take five to six years, but as the project advances toward production, Aphrodite’s valuation—and that of NewMed—will likely be reassessed.

Currently, institutional investors do not attribute substantial value to Aphrodite beyond the direct investments made. However, as development progresses and commercial production nears, this perception is likely to shift, potentially adding significant value to NewMed's market capitalization. If we assume a conservative valuation of $3 billion for Aphrodite, NewMed’s 30% stake would translate to an additional $900 million in value—an amount that could serve as a strong growth driver for the company, particularly if gas demand and prices remain favorable.

Furthermore, the natural gas from Aphrodite will be exported via pipeline to Egypt’s transmission network, a move that could enhance the project's profitability and open up new trading opportunities for the extracted gas. In summary, while heavy investments and regulatory risks remain, the potential for value creation at NewMed is substantial, particularly as the Aphrodite field moves closer to commercial production.