Check Point Software Technologies (NASDAQ: CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. -1.18%  ) is set to release its Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings today before the market opens. While new CEO Nadav Zafrir is unlikely to have had a major impact yet—having stepped into the role just in December—investors have moved past their disappointment from the last earnings report, with the stock now back near pre-drop levels.

Analysts expect Q4 revenue of $698.8 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65, aligning with Check Point’s own guidance of $675M-$715M in revenue and $2.60-$2.70 in EPS.

Why the Stock Dropped After Q3—and Why It Recovered

The previous earnings report sent CHKP shares tumbling 18%, as the company lowered the top end of its full-year EPS guidance from $9.30 to $9.15. While the lower range actually increased from $8.70 to $9.05, the tightening of the forecast spooked investors.

On the revenue front, Check Point raised its full-year outlook slightly, from $2.475B-$2.556B to $2.536B-$2.576B, but investors had hoped for more aggressive growth. Additionally, while the company had beaten analyst estimates in the first two quarters, it merely met expectations in Q3, a trend expected to continue in Q4—another sign of slowing momentum.

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Check Point now trades at 20 times expected 2025 earnings of $9.93 per share. Given the 28% rally over the past year and the full recovery from its Q3 drop, investor expectations are high heading into today’s results. If the company misses or guides below analyst expectations, shares could pull back again.

Wall Street Analysts Remain Cautious

Bank of America analysts have highlighted concerns about slower-than-expected growth in Check Point’s key product lines—Infinity, Harmony, and Quantum—which collectively made up 15% of revenue last quarter. Check Point has heavily invested in expanding these product lines to fend off competition, but so far, growth has not met investor expectations.

While cybersecurity spending continues to expand, analysts worry that Check Point may struggle to deliver double-digit growth: Revenue from software maintenance and security services is expected to grow just 2%-3%—with the success of Infinity playing a key role. European market weakness—a major segment for Check Point—could further slow growth. Some delayed Q3 deals might help Q4 results, but analysts still see long-term moderation in growth.

New CEO Nadav Zafrir: A Shift Toward M&A?

Today’s report marks Check Point’s last earnings under outgoing CEO Gil Shwed, who is moving into the role of Chairman. New CEO Nadav Zafrir is a well-known figure in cybersecurity, having co-founded venture capital firm Team8, which specializes in cybersecurity startups. Before that, Zafrir led Israel’s elite Unit 8200, the military intelligence division responsible for many of the country’s top cybersecurity innovations.

Most recently, he served as Chairman of SolarEdge (NASDAQ: SEDG SolarEdge -2.06%  ). Given his background, investors expect him to accelerate Check Point’s growth through strategic acquisitions—a shift from the company’s traditionally conservative, organic growth model.

What to Watch in the Earnings Report

1. 2025 Guidance – Investors will closely watch Check Point’s full-year forecast. Any guidance below expectations could trigger a selloff.
   
2. Product Growth – Can Check Point’s investments in Infinity, Harmony, and Quantum start driving meaningful revenue expansion?
   
3. Acquisition Strategy – Will Zafrir signal a more aggressive M&A approach in the company’s roadmap?

With the stock already pricing in a recovery, Check Point has little room for error today. Investors will need strong guidance and clear growth catalysts to push the stock meaningfully higher from here.